Bitcoin Loses All 2025 Gains: What Investors Must Know

Key Points

• Current Price Volatility: Bitcoin is hovering around $95,000 as of November 17, 2025, after dipping to as low as $93,000 in a sharp weekend sell-off, effectively wiping out its year-to-date gains amid broader market jitters.
• Holder Impact: Research suggests nearly all short-term holders—those who bought in the last five months—are underwater, marking the worst loss rate since the 2022 FTX debacle, though long-term institutional players appear to be accumulating.
• Institutional Resilience: U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have shown relative stability with only modest asset under management (AUM) declines, while corporations now control close to 7% of Bitcoin’s supply, hinting at strategic buying during the dip.
• Market Sentiment: Evidence leans toward a short-term correction driven by macro pressures like rising yields and deleveraging, but underlying metrics like reduced selling pressure indicate potential stabilization.
• Outlook Caution: Projections vary widely, with some analysts eyeing a rebound to $140,000 by early 2026, though controversy swirls around whether regulatory shifts and economic uncertainty could prolong the slump—experts urge viewing this as a buying opportunity for patient investors.

Current Situation

The crypto market’s flagship asset, Bitcoin, is nursing wounds from a brutal weekend rout that saw it plunge below $100,000, trading at approximately $95,000 early Monday. This marks a more than 5% weekly drop and a staggering 25% retreat from its October highs near $126,000. The sell-off erased all 2025 gains, fueled by overleveraged positions liquidating over $1.2 billion in a single day, alongside waning investor enthusiasm tied to tech stock slumps and persistent inflation fears. Short-term holders are hit hardest: 99% of Bitcoin acquired in the past 155 days is now in the red, with 2.8 million BTC held at a loss—the highest since FTX’s collapse. Yet, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have held up remarkably, with AUM slipping just 4% despite the price carnage, reflecting only $2.7 billion in net outflows over the past month—or a mere 1.5% of total assets. Corporations like MicroStrategy are quietly scooping up more, amassing nearly 7% of the total supply, signaling that big money sees value in the dip.

Historical Context

Bitcoin’s 2025 journey has been a rollercoaster, starting the year around $95,000 after a strong 2024 close at about $44,000. It surged to an all-time high above $126,000 in early October, driven by ETF inflows totaling $61.9 billion and institutional hype. But cracks emerged mid-month, with a 19% drop in 40 days amid Fed uncertainty and a strong dollar. This echoes past cycles— like the 2022 FTX-induced crash—but differs due to structural shifts: Bitcoin’s correlation to traditional assets has weakened, positioning it more as a macro hedge. Long-term holders sold relentlessly this year, undercutting performance against the S&P 500, while miners and whales added pressure by dumping holdings.

Future Projections

Analysts are split, but many see the current dip as a bottoming process. JPMorgan pegs a near-term floor above $94,000, with potential to climb to $170,000 by 2026 as Bitcoin challenges gold’s $28.3 trillion market cap. Others forecast $140,000 by early 2026, or even $220,000 in the next 45 days if sentiment flips. Risks include prolonged macro headwinds like CPI data and Fed commentary, but positives like easing selling pressure and stablecoin inflows suggest a rebound to $112,000-$120,000 by late November if key supports hold.

Ricky’s Personal Perspective

As an experienced cryptocurrency expert, I’ve seen my share of Bitcoin bloodbaths—from the 2018 winter to the 2022 meltdown—and this feels like a classic shakeout rather than the end of the road. The data screams capitulation among retail newbies, but institutions are loading up, with corporations like MicroStrategy turning volatility into opportunity. Sure, macro clouds loom, but Bitcoin’s decoupling from stocks and its hedge-like status point to resilience. I’d bet on a year-end rally if we hold $95,000; otherwise, dip-buyers could see 20-30% upside by Q1 2026. Patience pays in crypto—don’t panic-sell the fear.

In the shadowed corridors of Wall Street, where fortunes pivot on whispers and data streams, Bitcoin’s latest tumble has all the drama of a high-stakes thriller. Picture this: the digital gold that roared to $126,270 in early October now limps at around $95,000, its year-to-date gains vaporized in a weekend frenzy that liquidated over $1.2 billion in positions and sent shockwaves through the crypto ecosystem. It’s a tale of overleveraged dreams dashed, short-term holders drowning in red ink, and yet, amid the wreckage, institutional whales quietly amassing treasures. Let’s dissect this market mayhem, tracing its roots, current pulse, and the foggy horizon ahead, all while weaving in the hard numbers and counterviews that keep even the savviest traders on their toes.

Start with the here and now, where Bitcoin’s price chart resembles a cliff dive. As of November 17, 2025, BTC trades near $95,559, up a modest 1.47% in the last session but down sharply from its $100,000 perch just days ago. The weekend rout erased all 2025 gains, with prices dipping to $93,029—a 30% haircut from yearly highs. Why the carnage? Blame a cocktail of macro woes: rising Treasury yields, inflation jitters, and a risk-off mood sweeping global markets. Over 173,691 traders got rekt in 24 hours, with $671 million in liquidations, mostly longs, cascading into forced selling. Short-term holders (STHs) are the poster children for pain: 99% of BTC bought in the last 155 days is underwater, with 2.8 million coins held at a loss—the direst since FTX’s 2022 implosion. On November 14 alone, STHs dumped 148,241 BTC at a loss, coinciding with a price plunge. Over the weekend, another 65,000 BTC flowed to exchanges from these panicked hands. Supply held at a loss hit an 8-month high of 4.9 million BTC, amplifying the fear.

Yet, not all is doom. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, those Wall Street darlings, have weathered the storm with grace. Despite a 25% price drop, AUM slipped only 4%, with net outflows of $869.86 million on November 14—the second-largest on record—but totaling $2.7 billion over the past month, a scant 1.5% of total assets. From peaks of $160 billion, AUM dipped to $140 billion, but inflows resumed modestly in early November after a $2.9 billion outflow streak. This resilience contrasts with broader crypto AUM dropping 28% to $191 billion, driven by U.S. investors. On the corporate front, firms have stealthily claimed nearly 7% of BTC’s supply. Public companies hold 993,341 BTC worth $94.77 billion, private ones 426,337 BTC at $40.67 billion, pushing totals toward 1.8 million coins. MicroStrategy leads with 649,870 BTC, adding 8,178 last week at $102,171 apiece for $835.6 million, funded by preferred stock issuances. Others like Marathon Digital, Twenty-One, and Bitcoin Standard follow, with even SpaceX and Tether in the mix. This institutional accumulation amid retail panic suggests a floor is forming, with on-chain metrics like easing futures selling and stablecoin ratios echoing past rebounds.

Rewind to Bitcoin’s 2025 odyssey for context. Kicking off near $95,000—up from 2024’s $44,167 close—it rode ETF euphoria to $61.9 billion in inflows, decoupling from risk assets with correlations to SOFR at 0.52 and global M2 negative. Peaks hit $126,270 on October 6, but cracks showed: a 19% drop in 40 days, underperforming S&P (+12.67%) and gold (+55%). November brought highs of $101,521 on the 13th, then a swift fall to $96,000 by the 14th amid miner outflows and whale selling. This mirrors historical patterns: 57% positive months since 2011, with epic surges like 451% in November 2013, but also brutal corrections. Unlike 2022’s FTX fallout, 2025’s slump stems from macro shifts—Fed uncertainty, $85 billion GDP hit from shutdowns—rather than crypto-specific scandals. Long-term holders cashed out, but institutional plumbing (e.g., ETF absorption) softened blows, preventing 80% drawdowns.

Peering into the crystal ball, projections blend optimism with caution. JPMorgan eyes a bottom above $94,000, tied to production costs, with Bitcoin potentially hitting $170,000 by 2026 to rival gold’s $28.3 trillion cap as volatility ratios decline. Changelly forecasts a near-term bump to $98,295 by November 19, while bolder voices like Kim Dotcom predict $220,000 in 45 days. Binance users consensus: $99,085 in 2026. Cycle peaks could top $130,000 by early 2026, per CoinDCX, but counterarguments highlight risks: Fed rate ambiguity, miner pressure, and ETF outflows could drag to $85,000-$90,000 if supports crack. LongForecast tempers with $73,276 average in January 2026. Sentiment indicators like Fear & Greed at 10 scream oversold, with traders eyeing $95,000-$97,000 stability and CPI data as pivots. MicroStrategy’s Saylor remains bullish, advocating a multi-year horizon for 20-30% annual compounding via Bitcoin-backed credit.

To organize the volatility, here’s a table of key Bitcoin price milestones in 2025:

And for corporate holdings, a snapshot table of top accumulators:

Counterviews abound: Some X pundits decry the “Trump Effect,” where pro-crypto policies failed to stabilize, leading to YTD underperformance vs. gold (+55%) and silver (+73%). Others argue the four-year cycle is dead, replaced by institutional flows that absorb dips without past crashes. Regulatory uncertainty and DeFi hacks add fuel, but metrics like untriggered Pi Cycle and neutral MVRV suggest mid-cycle, not end. As Ricky, I’d echo: This dip tests mettle, but data favors the bold—hold above $95,000, and we could see $112,000 by Friday if CPI cooperates. In Wall Street parlance, it’s not the fall that kills you; it’s missing the bounce.

Key Citations

• Bitcoin Magazine: Strategy Adds 8,178 BTC As Bitcoin Price Hits $93,000 (https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/strategy-buys-8178-bitcoin-near-93000)
• CoinDesk: Short-Term Holder Bitcoin Supply in Loss Climbs to Highest Level Since FTX Collapse (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/11/17/short-term-holder-bitcoin-supply-in-loss-climbs-to-highest-level-since-ftx-collapse)
• CoinDesk: Bitcoin (BTC) News: $869M Outflow Hits Spot ETFs (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/11/14/bitcoin-spot-etfs-see-usd869m-outflow-second-largest-on-record)
• Bitbo: Bitcoin Treasuries | 145 Companies Holding (Public/Priv) (https://bitbo.io/treasuries/)
• Yahoo Finance: JPMorgan Forecasts Bitcoin Bottom, Anticipates $28.3 Trillion Challenge To Gold By 2026 (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-forecasts-bitcoin-bottom-anticipates-183113549.html)
• Investopedia: Bitcoin’s Price History (https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/121815/bitcoins-price-history.asp)
• X Post by Shanaka Anslem Perera: Pin this. Grade me Friday. (https://x.com/shanaka86/status/1987504431437627550)
• X Post by CRYPTO₿IRB: It’s official. Holding bitcoin in 2025 has lost you money. (https://x.com/crypto_birb/status/1989361784395043028)
• TradingView: World’s Smartest Man Forecasts Bitcoin to Reach $220,000 in the Next 45 Days (https://www.tradingview.com/news/cryptonews:d7733bdd0094b:0-world-s-smartest-man-forecasts-bitcoin-to-reach-220-000-in-the-next-45-days/)
• Nasdaq: Prediction: Bitcoin Will Hit $140,000 By the Beginning of 2026 (https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/prediction-bitcoin-will-hit-140000-beginning-2026)