A Wall Street Analysis of U.S. Leverage, Altcoin ETFs, and the Saudi Stablecoin Gambit

Introduction: The Three-Front Market (November 2025)

November 2025 has emerged as a pivotal month, a critical juncture where three distinct and powerful market narratives are converging simultaneously. This report will analyze these three fronts, arguing that their confluence is forging a new, bifurcated market structure that will define the next cycle of digital asset investment.

The market is currently being reshaped by developments on three primary fronts:

1. The Regulatory Front (U.S.): The “onshoring” of the core crypto market structure. After years of ambiguity, a landmark Joint Statement from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on September 2, 2025, has provided a de facto green light for regulated, leveraged spot crypto trading on U.S. exchanges.
2. The Financialization Front (Wall Street): The maturation of cryptocurrency as a packaged financial product. Following the seismic success of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, the market is now navigating the “altcoin ETF wave.” Key SEC decision deadlines for products tracking Solana and XRP are falling this month, testing the market’s appetite and reshaping price dynamics.
3. The Geopolitical Front (Global): The weaponization of digital currency as a state-level tool. Saudi Arabia’s watershed November 6 announcement of a national stablecoin initiative is a strategic masterstroke. This is not an isolated event but a calculated move, directly linked to its 2024 entry into the China-backed Project mBridge, signaling a clear intent to build a parallel, non-dollar financial rail.

These events are not isolated. The central thesis of this report is that the crypto market is undergoing a “Great Bifurcation.” The United States, after a hostile 2022-2024 “regulation by enforcement” phase, has executed a 180-degree policy pivot under a new, pro-crypto administration. It is now rapidly building a regulated walled garden to “Wall Street-ify” crypto, ensuring it is packaged, traded, and settled as a U.S. dollar-denominated financial asset.

This U.S. regulatory thaw is not happening in a vacuum; it is a defensive geopolitical move. It is a direct reaction to the accelerating de-dollarization efforts by the BRICS+ nations, which now include strategic U.S. partners Saudi Arabia and the UAE. These nations are building a parallel, state-driven ecosystem to use digital currency as a geopolitical utility for trade and settlement, bypassing the U.S.-controlled financial system. The U.S. strategy, evidenced by the new SEC/CFTC harmony and the legislative push for the GENIUS Act to regulate USD-stablecoins, is to anchor the digital asset ecosystem to the dollar before a non-dollar standard takes root.

This chronicle will dissect each of these three fronts, providing the history, current situation, and future projections for investors navigating this new, multi-polar digital world.

Table 1: Key November 2025 Market Catalysts

Date	Event	Category	Significance
(Sept 2, 2025)	SEC/CFTC Joint Statement on Leveraged Trading	U.S. Regulation	De facto green light for “onshore” U.S. regulated crypto leverage.
Nov 6, 2025	Saudi Minister Announces National Stablecoin Initiative	Geopolitics / Stablecoin	Strategic pivot to create a state-partnered digital currency, linked to SAMA and CMA.
Nov 12, 2025	SEC Final Decision: Grayscale Hedera Trust	Wall Street / ETF	Deadline for one of the next-wave altcoin ETF approvals.
Nov 14, 2025	SEC Final Decision: Franklin Templeton Solana & XRP ETFs	Wall Street / ETF	Major deadline for two of the most anticipated altcoin financial products.
Nov 16, 2025	SEC Final Decision: Fidelity Solana Fund & Bitwise Solana Fund	Wall Street / ETF	Key deadlines for products from traditional finance heavyweights.

Part I: The Onshoring of Risk—America Green-Lights Regulated Leverage

1.1 The Current Situation: What the September 2nd “Green Light” Actually Means

On September 2, 2025, the U.S. regulatory landscape for crypto shifted on its axis. Staff from the SEC’s Division of Trading and Markets and the CFTC’s Divisions of Market Oversight and Clearing and Risk issued a landmark Joint Statement. This document is critical not for what it legislated, but for what it clarified.

It is not new legislation. It is an “interpretive statement”. This distinction is crucial. As one legal analysis aptly noted, this should be “thought of less as building a new road and more as putting up a clear sign on an existing, unpaved one, finally inviting traffic to drive through”.

The core clarification is this: registered exchanges—such as National Securities Exchanges (NSEs) and CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) like CME Group—are not prohibited under current law from listing and facilitating the trading of “certain spot crypto asset products, including those involving leverage, margin, or financing”.

This initiative is being actively spearheaded by CFTC Acting Chair Caroline Pham. In early November 2025, Pham confirmed reports that she is in direct talks with major exchanges, including CME, Cboe, and crypto-native platforms like Coinbase Derivatives, to launch these new products, potentially before the end of the year.

1.2 The History: From “Regulation by Enforcement” to “A New Day”

This policy harmonization would have been unthinkable just 18 months ago. It represents the end of a long-standing regulatory “civil war” between the SEC and CFTC over digital asset jurisdiction. For years, this turf war and the resulting regulatory uncertainty “chilled productive economic activity” and “driven overseas”.

The shift was catalyzed by two main forces:

1. A new political mandate: The White House’s 2025 President’s Working Group (PWG) on Digital Asset Markets issued a report titled “Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology”. This, combined with a new, pro-crypto administration, replaced the old “regulation by enforcement” doctrine with a mandate to “foster innovation”.
2. New agency leadership: In a joint statement on September 5, 2025, new SEC Chair Paul Atkins and CFTC Acting Chair Caroline Pham declared “a new day at the SEC and the CFTC”. They explicitly stated their work is “never more intertwined” and that they must “ensure regulation does not stand in the way of progress,” with the specific goal of reversing the trend of innovation being “driven overseas”.

1.3 Future Projections: The Impact Analysis (A Double-Edged Sword)

The decision to bring leveraged trading “onshore” presents a clear, double-edged sword for investors.

The Pros (The Bull Case: Onshore Oversight):

For the first time, leveraged spot trading—long a primary driver of crypto market liquidity—will be brought “under U.S. federal supervision”. This is a direct solution to one of the market’s most significant systemic risks: the “offshore workaround”. For years, U.S. traders seeking leverage were forced onto unregulated offshore exchanges, where they faced immense regulatory, custody, and counterparty risks (e.g., the collapse of FTX).

The new framework replaces this model with “institutional-grade oversight, enforcing margin controls, transparent risk management, and investor protection standards”. This provides U.S. traders with a domestic, regulated alternative.

The Cons (The Bear Case: Risk Normalization):

Leverage, by its nature, is a tool for amplifying outcomes. It magnifies not only profits but also losses. The primary risk for a retail trader is catastrophic liquidation, where a market move against a position “can exceed your initial investment amount” and “wipe out the trader’s entire investment”.

A powerful, recent case study illustrates this risk perfectly. A sharp market selloff in late 2025 triggered a “$20 billion wipeout,” unwinding nearly $20 billion in leveraged positions in a matter of hours. This event exposed the massive “structural leverage… quietly built up” across the market. It was a “feedback loop” where margin calls and forced liquidations on offshore exchanges cascaded, overwhelming available liquidity and intensifying the price decline.

1.4 Analysis: Containment, Not Condonement

The September 2nd regulatory pivot must be understood in the context of this systemic risk. U.S. regulators are not naive; they just witnessed a $20 billion liquidation cascade originating from the very offshore, unregulated venues they sought to block. They have correctly concluded that they cannot ban U.S. persons from seeking leverage; they can only contain it.

Therefore, this “onshoring” is a containment strategy. By allowing exchanges like CME and Coinbase Derivatives to offer these products, the CFTC and SEC gain “institutional-grade oversight”. This move is less about “fostering innovation” and more about gaining control and visibility over a market segment that has repeatedly proven its capacity to destabilize the entire asset class.

This will not unify the leverage market; it will bifurcate it. U.S. regulated venues will almost certainly have leverage caps, similar to the 50:1 cap the CFTC imposes on retail forex trading. The “degen” retail trader seeking 100x or 500x leverage will still go offshore.

This means the systemic risk remains. The $20 billion wipeout was caused by a “lack of depth on offshore exchanges”. The U.S. move protects investors who choose to trade on regulated U.S. venues, but the global systemic risk from the hyper-leveraged, less-liquid offshore market persists.

Table 2: The New Leverage Landscape (U.S. Regulated vs. Offshore)

Feature	U.S. Regulated Venues (CME, Coinbase Derivatives)	Offshore Venues (Unregulated)
Regulatory Oversight	CFTC / SEC oversight; NFA membership	None. Often in non-compliant jurisdictions.
Investor Protection	U.S. investor protection standards; transparent risk management; SIPC (for securities) / NFA oversight	None. High counterparty risk (e.g., FTX collapse). Risk of lost funds.
Typical Leverage	Moderate (TBD, likely <50:1, similar to retail FX)	Extreme (100x to 500x).
Key Products	“Perp-style” futures; margined spot	Perpetual Swaps (“Perps”).
Primary Risk	Amplified investment losses within a regulated framework	Amplified losses + Counterparty risk + Cascading liquidations from low-liquidity venues.

Part II: The Altcoin Deluge—Wall Street Packages SOL and XRP

2.1 The Current Situation: The Solana ETF “Sell the News”

While the regulatory structure for leverage is being built, the financialization of crypto’s blue-chip assets is already in full swing. The market is currently processing the late-October 2025 launch of the first U.S. spot Solana (SOL) ETFs.

The price action was a quintessential “sell the news” event. Despite a successful launch, SOL’s price dropped nearly 20% in its debut week, falling from a pre-launch high of approximately $205 to around $165.

The real story, however, was in the fund flows, which revealed a critical divergence and a clear sign of where the market is headed.

• Bitwise’s Solana ETF ($BSOL) dominated the launch, pulling in approximately $199 million in new capital on top of a $223 million seed fund.
• Grayscale’s Solana Trust ($GSOL), which converted from a closed-end fund, attracted only $2.2 million in new flows during the same period.

2.2 The History: The “ETF Effect” from Bitcoin to Ethereum

This new altcoin ETF wave stands on the shoulders of the spot Bitcoin ETFs. The journey was arduous, beginning with the first filing in 2013 and facing over 20 rejections. The watershed moment was the August 2023 U.S. Court of Appeals ruling in Grayscale v. SEC, which found the SEC’s rejection of Grayscale’s Bitcoin trust conversion to be “arbitrary and capricious”.

This decision forced the SEC’s hand, leading to the approval of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 10, 2024. The launch was, by all accounts, the “most successful ETF launch of all time”. It proved the core “access” thesis: ETFs provide a regulated, low-friction vehicle for institutional allocators and retail investors to gain exposure through traditional brokerage accounts. The demand has been staggering, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) alone accumulating $88 billion in assets as of November 2025. Spot Ether ETFs followed, cementing the pathway for other major digital assets.

2.3 Future Projections: All Eyes on the November “Fast-Track” Deadlines

With the Solana ETF now trading, the market’s immediate focus shifts to the next wave of SEC deadlines falling this month:

• November 12: Grayscale Hedera Trust.
• November 14: Franklin Templeton Solana ETF & Franklin XRP ETF.
• November 16: Fidelity Solana Fund & Bitwise Solana Fund.

A new, aggressive “fast-track” strategy has emerged. Filers, including Franklin Templeton and Bitwise, have been observed amending their S-1 registration statements to remove the “delaying amendment”. This is a savvy procedural maneuver. Under Section 8(a) of the Securities Act of 1933, this removal means the registration automatically becomes effective 20 days after filing, unless the SEC actively intervenes to stop it.

The launch of an XRP ETF appears imminent. On November 10, 2025, the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), the U.S. post-trade clearing and settlement giant, listed five spot XRP ETFs (from Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, 21Shares, and others) as “active and in the pre-launch stage”. Analysts predict a launch this week or by mid-November, using this “fast-track” method to bypass potential delays from the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.

2.4 Analysis: The New Playbook—Staking, Fees, and Selling the News

The Solana ETF launch has provided a new, clear playbook for all subsequent altcoin ETFs.

First, the “Bitcoin ETF Playbook” is dead. The spot Bitcoin ETF was a unique, macro event, representing the financialization of a new macro-asset. Its price ran up and continued to run as institutional allocators absorbed supply. The Solana ETF did the opposite: the price crashed 20% on a successful launch. This demonstrates the market had already priced in the approval. The launch was not a new demand event but a liquidity event—a structured opportunity for early VCs and long-term holders to sell their concentrated positions to the new, regulated, and diffuse ETF buyers. This is the new playbook. The upcoming XRP launch should be expected to trigger a similar run-up to the event, followed by a sharp sell-off on the event.

Second, the real ETF battle is not approval; it’s fees and staking. The flow data from the $BSOL vs. $GSOL launch is the most important signal of the month. Bitwise’s aggressive 0.20% fee crushed Grayscale’s 0.35% fee. This fee war will be brutal.

Even more profoundly, Grayscale’s $GSOL and $ETHE products are now the first U.S. spot crypto ETFs to include staking. This is a fundamental evolution. A non-staking ETF (like IBIT) is a “dumb” holder of the asset. A staking ETF becomes a productive asset, one that generates yield (historically 6-8% per year on SOL) by participating in network security. The SEC’s quiet allowance of staking ETFs is a far more significant long-term catalyst than the simple approval of a spot product. The key question for investors will no longer be “What’s the fee?” but “Does it stake?”.

Third, Wall Street is getting selective. While Solana and XRP are being fast-tracked, the market is showing “limited at best” demand for other large-cap assets like Cardano (ADA). Notably, BlackRock has not filed for a Cardano ETF, and Grayscale is one of the only major filers. This demonstrates that Wall Street is not simply “aping in” to the top-10 list. It is selectively financializing assets that have a clear combination of institutional demand, deep liquidity, and a (now) perceived non-security status. The ETF wave is creating a clear, institutional-grade tier, and not every altcoin will make the cut.

Table 3: Altcoin ETF Tracker & Ticker (November 2025)

Asset	Key Filers	Ticker(s)	Launch Status / Flows	Key SEC Deadlines	Investor Takeaway
Solana (SOL)	Bitwise, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, Fidelity	$BSOL, $GSOL	$BSOL dominated launch ($199M+ new flows). $GSOL saw minimal new flows ($2.2M).	Nov 14: Franklin Nov 16: Fidelity	“Sell the news” playbook confirmed. SOL price dropped 20% post-launch. Fee wars (0.20% vs 0.35%) and staking are the key differentiators.
XRP	Bitwise, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, 21Shares	(Pending)	(Pending)	Nov 14: Franklin	Imminent launch expected. “Fast-track” S-1 filings and DTCC pre-launch listing suggest a launch within days, regardless of government shutdown.
Hedera (HBAR)	Grayscale	(Pending)	(Pending)	Nov 12: Grayscale	A test case for “long-tail” altcoin ETF demand.
Cardano (ADA)	Grayscale	(Pending)	(Pending)	(TBD)	Lacking institutional demand. No BlackRock filing. Currently being “passed by rivals” in the race for financialization.

Part III: The New Petrodollar—Saudi Arabia’s Stablecoin and the mBridge Gambit

3.1 The Current Situation: The November 6th Announcement

The third, and arguably most significant, front opened on November 6, 2025. In a clear, top-down directive, Saudi Minister of Municipal, Rural Affairs and Housing, Majed al-Hogail, announced that the government is “looking to launch stablecoins soon”.

This is not a private-sector experiment. It is an official state project in partnership with the two most powerful financial bodies in the Kingdom: the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) and the Capital Market Authority (CMA). The stated goal is to leverage digital currencies “within Saudi values and regulations” to “create a faster financial system”. This new infrastructure is aimed at enabling instant real estate settlements, improving corporate treasury management, and compressing cross-border payment and remittance times from days to seconds.

3.2 The History: The Great Pivot from “Illegal” to “Institutional”

This announcement marks a stunning and calculated policy pivot. As recently as 2018, a Saudi government committee had declared public cryptocurrencies “effectively illegal”. SAMA and the Ministry of Finance repeatedly warned against dealing in virtual currencies, citing high risks, lack of regulatory oversight, and ties to illicit activities.

However, this is a distinction, not a reversal. Saudi Arabia was never anti-blockchain; it was anti-uncontrolled assets. The 2018 ban was a defensive move against decentralized, public cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin that threatened its monetary sovereignty. The 2025 announcement is a proactive move to domesticate the technology. The state is not embracing Bitcoin; it is building its own digital currencies (stablecoins and CBDCs) that it can control.

This strategy has been developing for years, beginning with “Project Aber,” a joint wholesale CBDC experiment with the Central Bank of the UAE, and continuing with SAMA’s ongoing domestic wholesale CBDC research with local banks and fintechs.

3.3 Future Projections: The Geopolitical Thesis

This initiative must be understood not as a fintech project, but as a core component of Saudi Vision 2030—the Kingdom’s grand strategy for economic diversification away from oil. More importantly, it is a powerful new tool of geopolitical strategy.

The Motive: De-Dollarization

The geopolitical motive is clear: to create an alternative to the U.S.-dominated monetary system. Analysis from the Carnegie Endowment is explicit, stating that Gulf (GCC) states are actively trying to “wean themselves off U.S.-dominated monetary systems”. This push is a direct response to “strained U.S.-Saudi relations” and, critically, the “weaponization of the U.S. dollar through sanctions” on nations like Russia and Iran.

The Mechanism: Project mBridge

The Saudi stablecoin is the asset. Project mBridge is the rail.

In 2024, Saudi Arabia quietly became a “full participant” in Project mBridge. This project, spearheaded by the central banks of China, Hong Kong, Thailand, and the UAE, is a multi-Central Bank Digital Currency (mCBDC) platform. It is, in effect, a direct competitor to the U.S.-controlled SWIFT payment messaging system. It is built on distributed ledger technology to enable instant, peer-to-peer, cross-border payments and settlements using state-issued digital currencies.

3.4 Analysis: The “Petroyuan” is Here, and It’s Built on Blockchain

This is the most critical geopolitical development in digital finance this year. When the individual data points are assembled, the picture is unambiguous.

1. Trade: China is Saudi Arabia’s #1 oil customer.
2. Pact: In June 2024, Saudi Arabia reportedly allowed its 50-year “petrodollar” agreement—the 1974 pact to only sell oil in U.S. dollars—to expire.
3. Alliance: Saudi Arabia has joined the BRICS+ economic bloc, aligning itself with China, Russia, and the UAE.
4. Rails: Saudi Arabia has joined Project mBridge, a China-backed, non-SWIFT payment rail.
5. Asset: Saudi Arabia has now announced a national, state-controlled digital currency (stablecoin/CBDC).

The conclusion is unavoidable: the new Saudi digital currency is the asset that will run on the mBridge rails to facilitate the sale of oil to China (and other BRICS+ nations) for digital yuan or a digital riyal. China has already test-run this, conducting its first digital yuan-settled oil purchase in late 2023. This is the birth of the “Petroyuan,” and it is happening on-chain.

SAMA is executing a highly sophisticated, two-track strategy.

• Track 1 (Geopolitical/Wholesale): Project mBridge. This is for wholesale (central bank-to-central bank) settlement of high-value, strategic goods—namely, oil.
• Track 2 (Domestic/Commercial): The new National Stablecoin Initiative. This is for domestic and commercial use, aimed at modernizing the local economy, from instant real estate settlements to faster remittances and corporate treasury payments.

SAMA is simultaneously building a new international trade rail and a new domestic financial rail. This is a comprehensive, top-to-bottom re-engineering of its financial system to prepare for a multi-polar, post-dollar world.

Table 4: SAMA’s Two-Track Digital Finance Strategy

Project Name	Type	Key Partners	Strategic Purpose
Project Aber	Wholesale CBDC (Pilot)	Central Bank of UAE (CBUAE)	Research: Feasibility of cross-border payment settlement between central banks.
Domestic CBDC Project	Wholesale CBDC (Research)	Local Saudi banks, Fintechs	Domestic: Exploring use cases for domestic interbank settlement.
Project mBridge	Multi-CBDC Platform (Wholesale)	China, UAE, Hong Kong, Thailand, BIS	Geopolitical / International: Cross-border trade settlement (e.g., Oil) outside the SWIFT/USD system.
National Stablecoin Initiative	Regulated Stablecoin (Commercial)	SAMA, Capital Market Authority (CMA)	Domestic / Commercial: Public-facing payments, remittances, real estate, and trade finance.

Part IV: Conclusion—Ricky’s Perspective and Action Plan

4.1 Ricky’s Perspective: The Great Bifurcation

The events of November 2025 have cemented the “Great Bifurcation” of the digital asset market. Investors must now develop a thesis for two distinct, parallel, and co-existing ecosystems.

Thesis 1: The “Wall Street-ification” of Crypto

The United States has made its strategic choice. The new CFTC/SEC leverage pact and the wave of altcoin ETFs prove the U.S. has chosen to domesticate crypto. In this ecosystem, crypto is treated as a financial asset. It will be packaged, sold, and leveraged through the same regulated pipes as stocks and bonds. This “onshoring” is building a regulated walled garden. This will bring in massive institutional capital but will also tether the asset class to U.S. market structure, U.S. dollar-denomination, and U.S. regulatory oversight.

Thesis 2: The “Geopolitical Utility” of Crypto

Simultaneously, the East is building a parallel, state-driven ecosystem. Saudi Arabia’s mBridge/stablecoin gambit is the most powerful move to date. This ecosystem is not for speculation; it is for utility. Its purpose is to settle oil payments, facilitate international trade, and create a non-dollar financial rail for the BRICS+ nations.

These two worlds are not in competition; they will co-exist. The U.S. market will drive the financialized price action (ETF flows, regulated leverage). The global state-led market will drive the utility and adoption as a real-world settlement layer. The investment thesis for 2026-2030 is about understanding and navigating this very bifurcation.

4.2 The Investor Action Plan: Portfolio Adjustments for the New Market

This new, bifurcated reality requires an updated dashboard and a modified portfolio strategy.

How to Track the New Market (An Investor’s Dashboard):

• U.S. Leverage: Stop guessing about market sentiment. Start monitoring the professional data. The “early warning signs” of a leverage-driven crash are public: watch funding rates on perpetuals, spikes in open interest, and collateral utilization trends on on-chain lending platforms. These are the new, real-time “fear & greed” indices for systemic risk.
• U.S. ETFs: The approval headline is noise. The fund flow is the signal. The Solana ETF launch provided the definitive playbook: watch post-launch flows in the first two weeks. Are they strong and sustained (like IBIT), signaling real institutional demand? Or is it a “sell the news” liquidity event (like $BSOL), where launch-day volume is just insiders exiting?
• Geopolitics: Add SAMA and Project mBridge to the macro watchlist, alongside the Federal Reserve and the ECB. When SAMA or the People’s Bank of China announces a successful, high-volume, real-value oil transaction settled via mBridge, that must be treated as a macro signal as significant as an interest rate change.

Portfolio Strategy for the Bifurcated Market:

1. Core (BTC/ETH): This remains the portfolio’s foundation, representing “digital gold” and “decentralized compute”. The new U.S. regulated leverage products are professional tools, not retail toys. They should be used with extreme caution, respecting the $20 billion wipeout. Any use of leverage in this volatile asset class necessitates non-negotiable risk management, such as defined stop-losses.
2. Satellite (Altcoins – SOL, XRP, etc.): This is now a trader’s market, not an investor’s market. These assets are being financialized by Wall Street. The playbook is clear from the Solana ETF: buy the rumor, sell the news. The upside is now dictated by the rhythms of ETF launch schedules. This structure must be used to an investor’s advantage. Do not be the exit liquidity for VCs and fund managers.
3. Cash & Stablecoins (The Geopolitical Hedge): An investor’s “cash” position is no longer a simple decision. Holding a U.S.-regulated, dollar-backed stablecoin (like USDC) is a bet on the success of the U.S. “walled garden” framework and the long-term dominance of the digital dollar. This remains a sound bet. However, the existence of the mBridge/Petroyuan rail means that for the first time, there is a credible, state-backed alternative to the dollar system forming in real-time.

This new, multi-polar digital world—split between the U.S. financialized garden and the BRICS+ utility rail—fundamentally strengthens the investment case for Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the only digital, non-state, non-aligned, provably scarce asset that can exist outside both of these walled gardens, serving as a pristine collateral asset and a bridge between these two diverging worlds. The portfolio must be structured to reflect this new reality.